While there’s no scientific evidence readily available to show that a specific calendar date has any effect on human behavior, it is oddly coincidental that such a small range of dates contains some of the darkest moments in US History.
If asked to list the top violent tragedies among current generations, the shootings at Columbine High School, the Virginia Tech massacre, and the Oklahoma City Bombings would no doubt be near the top of the list. Most Americans within the Baby Boomer and Generation X age range would probably also list the seizure of the Branch Davidian Cult compound in Waco, Texas, and perhaps the bombing of Marine Barracks in Beirut.
Is it surprising that all of these, and other similar disasters, occurred from April 16 to April 20?
Correlation Can be Coincidental or Causal
Any scientist could attest that correlation does not necessarily indicate causation. This concept is sometimes difficult to overcome because of human tendency to use the simplest logic. Harry Houdini, David Copperfield and Cris Angel are all magicians, and all have black hair. Therefore, all magicians must have black hair, right? Wrong, of course. The correlation of hair color and profession is coincidental in this example.
Scientists experiment with different variables and controls to prove or disprove causation. The principle of Occam’s Razor dictates that, in most cases, the simplest explanation is the most likely one. Indeed, one must recognize that many other disasters (September 11, Bath school bombing) occurred outside of April.
Statistical Frequency Warrants Research
The question of April and it’s effect on human behavior has not been explored. It could be entirely coincidental, but the behavioral implications have not been explored. It would be a disservice to write the correlation off as mere coincidence or to jump to a conclusion without proper analysis.
Dates in Question
- 16 April 2007 - Virginia Tech massacre:labeled as the deadliest mass shooting in recent American history. Seung-Hui Cho kills 32 people and injures 23 others, then commits suicide.
- 18 April 1983 - Beirut bombing:An Islamic radical crashes a vehicle borne explosive into the US embassy in Lebanon, killing 63 people.
- 19 April 1993 - Waco: After a 51-day cordon of the Branch Davidian building in Texas, federal agents raid the compound as a fire breaks out. Eighty-one people die in the melee. 1995 - Oklahoma City bombing: The Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma is bombed by American fringe extremists, killing 168.
- 20 April 1985 - ATF raid on The Covenant, The Sword, and the Arm of the Lord compound in northern Arkansas. 1999 - Columbine: two students raid their Colorado High School with firearms, resulting in 15 deaths (the two committed suicide), and over 20 wounded. This was also the first such event Americans tracked in real time on TV, according to Syracuse University scholar Robert Thompson, as quoted in a 2007 Denver Post article by Kevin Simpson. 2007 - Johnson Space Center shooting: Two die when an armed man barricades himself within a NASA building in Houston, Texas.
Analysis of Proximity of Major Holidays
April is not a particularly significant month. Among its prominent holidays are April Fool’s Day, Earth Day, Tax Day, and on most years, Easter. The latter is a major Christian observation that is arguably one of the biggest holidays in America, but it does not occur on a fixed date (although it is always on a Sunday). The event it commemorates, the crucifixion of Jesus Christ (remembered on Good Friday) and his celebrated resurrection, which Christians believe occurred two days later. But the observance itself holds no significance in context of date as the date is fixed by different denominations and has changed over time. The eventual decision to celebrate after the Paschal moon links the holiday to the Jewish lunisolar calendar and thus Passover. Several antiquated Pagan holidays also coincide with this timeframe. So any association of these events with Easter or similar religious holidays can likely be discounted.
The ultimate question is whether there is a previously unrecognized force or condition that leads humans to behave violently or irrationally during this period. Such a hypothesis is not outside the realm of possibility. According to numerous studies, the death rate for Christians ebbs just before Christmastime and increases noticeably in the following days and weeks. Presumably there is a psychological desire to see family one last time and human will allows one to “hang on” for a few extra days. Similar patterns have been detected among Jews around Passover and across other religions. Conversely, some researchers attribute changes in mortality rate to seasonal temperature changes, as seen in a 22 December 2004 Journal of the American Medical Association article which detailed a study of cancer patients conducted by Ohio State University.
April could hold an explanation to extreme human behavior. None have professed to link these events with any credible public scholarship to date. The correlation may be coincidence or interrelated; an economic study of the facts and data would be fascinating.
For further examination of this subject, read "April Disasters and Trends of Violence."
Paul Bertolone - Paul Bertolone has written for Suite101.com since 2008. He is an avid reader, crossword puzzle fanatic, tech geek, beer aficionado, ...
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